For the first time in more than a decade, Nigeria is on course for its fastest sustained economic growth, according to the World Bank.

In its Global Economic Prospects report released in January 2026, the bank projected that Africa’s largest economy would grow by 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, a notable upgrade that signals renewed confidence in the country’s medium-term outlook.

The projection represents an improvement on the bank’s June 2025 forecast, which had put Nigeria’s 2026 growth at 3.7 per cent. By raising the estimate to 4.4 per cent, the World Bank effectively aligned Nigeria’s growth outlook for 2026 with its already optimistic 2027 forecast, underscoring what it described as the strongest growth pace in over ten years.

“Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027—the fastest pace in over a decade,” the bank noted.

GDP Data, Optimism

The World Bank’s upbeat outlook comes against the backdrop of improving domestic economic indicators. Data from Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.46 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the third quarter of 2025.

While Nigeria’s recovery has been uneven, quarterly GDP figures in 2024 and 2025 point to gradual strengthening, driven largely by non-oil sectors. The Q3 2025 performance reinforced expectations that the economy may be entering a more stable expansion phase after years of volatility linked to inflation, foreign exchange pressures and fiscal strain.

Services, Agriculture Lead

According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s growth momentum over the next two years will be powered mainly by the services sector, alongside a rebound in agricultural production and a modest acceleration in non-oil industrial activity.

Telecommunications, financial services, trade and transport have continued to outperform oil-dependent segments of the economy, reflecting Nigeria’s gradual shift away from crude oil as the dominant growth driver. Agriculture, which employs a large share of the population, is also expected to benefit from improved output and policy support, despite ongoing challenges such as insecurity and climate risks.

The World Bank stressed that these sectors would remain central to economic performance over the forecast period.

The bank added that continued expansion in services and improved agricultural output would remain the key pillars supporting economic performance over the forecast period.

Reforms, Monetary Policy, Investor Confidence

A key factor underpinning the World Bank’s optimism is Nigeria’s ongoing reform agenda, particularly in the area of taxation, combined with prudent monetary policy by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

The President Bola Tinubu administration has introduced policy changes, including fiscal reforms aimed at boosting revenue, improving efficiency and stabilising public finances. According to the World Bank, these measures are expected to strengthen macroeconomic stability and support broader economic activity.

Economic reforms, including in the tax system, along with continued prudent monetary policy, are expected to continue to provide support.

The bank added that these reforms could help improve investor sentiment and reduce inflation further, a critical concern for households and businesses alike.

Oil Output, External Balance

While Nigeria continues to push diversification, oil remains a key source of revenue. The World Bank noted that higher oil output is expected to help cushion the impact of lower international oil prices, supporting fiscal revenues and strengthening the country’s external balance.

“Higher oil output is expected to offset lower international oil prices this year, helping to boost fiscal revenues and strengthen the external balance,” the World Bank said.

Beyond headline growth figures, the emphasis on services and agriculture highlights the potential for job creation and broader economic inclusion. A stronger non-oil economy could help stabilise prices, expand the government’s revenue base and reduce Nigeria’s long-standing vulnerability to oil price shocks.

For policymakers, the forecast provides validation that recent reforms may be gaining traction. For investors, it offers cautious reassurance that Nigeria’s economy could deliver more predictable returns, even as structural weaknesses remain.

Regional, Global Context

The World Bank also projected that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will strengthen to 4.3 per cent in 2026, supported by reforms, resilient domestic investment and easing inflation across the region.

Globally, the global bank expects growth to remain resilient, though slightly moderated, easing to 2.6 per cent in 2026 before rising to 2.7 per cent in 2027 —an upward revision from its June forecast. The improved outlook reflects moderating inflation, stabilising financial conditions and stronger-than-expected performance in several emerging and developing economies, even as geopolitical tensions and climate risks remain elevated.